Analysis of the development trend of stationery manufacturing industry

"Transformation" is a hot word in China's business community. For most traditional stationery companies, fierce market competition brings not only low profits, but also disrupts the orderly development of the industry. Changes in consumer demand have led many traditional companies to focus on corporate innovation.

Marketing change in the Internet age

The so-called traditional enterprise Internetization is mainly reflected in the marketing model shifting from offline to online, or both online and offline. However, the main impact of the Internet is still reflected in the scope of marketing, but it does not involve production. Nowadays, there are manufacturers in the market that are connected to the Internet: the third-party platform is used as the medium, and the generation process is guided by the user data from the network. This enables on-demand production without overstocking. Therefore, the change in marketing model brought by the Internet is not just to move marketing channels to the Internet. The more important significance is to guide production through the analysis of data, so that enterprises will not blindly produce and increase production costs.

Another mode of power is to shorten the sales chain. Compared with the cost of multiple channels such as agency channels, distribution channels, and store channels in the office stationery industry, online sales can be achieved in one step. The transformation of the marketing model will lead to the transformation of the entire industry, the enterprise will adapt to the transformation of marketing in terms of production, and the enterprise will gradually transform.

Intelligent production equipment

From the changes in the export environment market in recent years, it is not difficult to see that the "Made in China" products have gradually lost the advantages of the world's factories. The increase in labor costs has also put a lot of artificial pressure on the densely populated stationery industry. In addition to ensuring a certain salary level, this problem should be raised to improve the sense of belonging of employees. Optimizing the equipment intelligence of the enterprise is indispensable. The fully automated production line of the stationery manufacturing industry is certainly less than the workers used in the semi-automatic production line. The production equipment can be improved to be as automated as possible and even as intelligent as possible. This is one of the ways to reduce production and improve competitiveness, and at the same time, intelligence is one of the basic conditions for future connection with sales data.

The transformation of enterprises has been repeatedly mentioned in recent years due to the sluggish export environment. However, changing sales channels is not the only way. In the ever-changing industry changes, there are many breakthroughs in finding companies. It is also this variety of breakthrough methods that provide support for the healthy development and steady development of enterprises.

After several years of rapid development of hardware companies, China's lock market will continue to grow at a rate of more than 20% per year. While vigorously promoting the development of China's lock industry, the future of the lock industry is limitless. However, this year not only did not ushered in his rapid development, but instead appeared in Waterloo. Lack of comprehensive brand capabilities. After careful understanding, it is not difficult to find that the hardware products circulating on the market today are rough in workmanship, single style and outdated, and lack of brand protection. These seriously reduce the consumer's trust in the products, and consumers are precisely when purchasing hardware products. The brand is very important, it can be said that it is the primary demand for purchasing products, and the comprehensive strength of the brand undoubtedly restricts the overall development of the hardware industry. The 12th Five-Year Plan has arrived. Some experts predict that the market share of China's mold industry will reach 300 billion yuan. Whether the hardware industry can usher in its spring under the stimulus of the policy will be waiting to be seen.

The Chinese lock industry should have an overall organizational goal, and scientific and technological progress can be steadily improved year by year, such as product structure, output, technical equipment, innovation capability, talent structure and so on.

It is expected that in the first half of 2014, due to the steady improvement of the economic situation this year and the slight increase in orders, exports will maintain relatively high growth. With the gradual slow recovery of the world economy, the United States as an engine of the world economy has gradually reduced and withdrawn from quantitative easing, leaving many uncertainties in the world economy. Comprehensive consideration, in 2014, China's machine tool exports are expected to increase by 13% to 15%.

Machine tool trade deficit reduction

In 2013, the growth rate of China's machine tool products exports was higher than the growth rate of the country's total exports; the machine tool imports grew negatively, and the rate of decline was obvious, and the trade deficit was significantly reduced.

In 2013, under the background of the general economic downturn in the world, China's foreign trade in machine tool products maintained a relatively stable growth. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the export value of China's machine tool products in 2013 was 4.379 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.56% over the previous year, which was higher than the year-on-year increase of 7.6% of all China's total exports. In 2013, the total import value of China's machine tool products was US$11.02 billion, an increase of -23.62% over the previous year.

In 2013, the import and export trade deficit of China's machine tool products was 6.623 billion US dollars, which was 4.186 billion US dollars lower than the 2012 import and export trade deficit of 10.809 billion US dollars, a decrease of 38.73%.

Machine tool exports have increased

In 2013, China's machine tool exports amounted to US$4.378 billion, up 12.56% year-on-year; the export volume was 16.65 million units, up 5.05% year-on-year; the average export price was US$262.93 per unit, up 7.15% year-on-year.

In addition to the large increase in export value and quantity in February, the export growth in other months of the first half of the year was lower than the annual growth rate. The growth rate of exports in the second half of the year is relatively stable and has a monthly upward trend, which seems to reflect to some extent some signs of recovery in the world economy.

Metal processing machine exports grew faster

Metal processing machine tools are the main part of China's machine tool exports, and export growth is relatively fast. In 2013, the export value of metal processing machine tools was 2.861 billion US dollars, accounting for 65.34% of all machine tool exports, which is slightly lower than 70% in 2012. The export value of metal processing machine tools increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than the growth of all machine tool exports by 12.56%. The export value of processing centers increased by 15.9% year-on-year.

It is worth noting that the proportion of China's machine tool exports to Asia is close to half of the trend, with an increase of 21.75% over the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate is close to twice the average. In particular, the ASEAN market in Asia increased by 51.86% year-on-year, and the growth rate was more than four times the average. Among them, exports to Vietnam reached 350 million US dollars, accounting for 8%, an increase of 217.69%.

The United States, Vietnam, Germany, Russia, and India are the main markets for China's machine tool exports, and the United States remains the largest market for Chinese machine tool exports.

From the perspective of trade methods, general trade exports are still the main force of machine tool exports, with an export value of 3.541 billion US dollars, accounting for 80.87% of the total export value, an increase of 8.79%; the export volume is 14,194,454 units, accounting for 85.23%, an increase of 4.29%.

Machine tool imports decreased in price

In 2013, China imported about 11 billion US dollars of machine tools, down 23.62% year-on-year; the import volume was 102,532 units, down 33.34% year-on-year; the average price of imported machine tools was 107,304.22 dollars, up 14.57% year-on-year. In general, the situation of volume reduction and price increase is in sharp contrast with the situation of volume increase and decline in 2012.

The market needs medium and high-end machine tools

The vast majority of imported machine tools in China are metal processing machines, and their imports account for 91.82% of all imported machine tools. From the import structure of China's metal processing machine tools in 2013, it can be seen that the quantity and amount of machine tool imports both decreased by 30.54% and 24.27%, respectively, but the unit price increased by 9.03%. Among them, although the number and amount of imports of processing centers decreased by 58.34% and 40.14%, respectively, the unit price rose sharply by 43.69%. This reflects the continuous optimization of the demand structure of the Chinese market and the increasing demand for medium and high-end machine tool products. On the other hand, it can be seen that the high-end machine tool products produced in China are in terms of product quality, technical indicators, technology level, user service, etc. The aspect is still not effective to meet the needs of customers. In this regard, China's machine tool manufacturers are introducing and learning from international advanced and core machine tool design, manufacturing concepts and technologies, enhancing independent research and development capabilities, improving the service level and competitiveness of their own products, and striving to meet the growing domestic and international customers. demand.

China's woodworking machine tools (non-metal processing machine tools) have a relatively high level of manufacturing, so the number of imports is relatively small.

The amount and quantity of machine tools imported from Africa and Mexico, although relatively small, are relatively large. From the perspective of the market and countries, the structure of China's machine tool import market is still dominated by Asia and Europe. The import value of machine tools in these two continents is 10.372 billion US dollars, accounting for 94.28% of the total. The countries with large import volume of machine tools are still Germany, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, which have mastered core technologies. The import value of these four countries and regions is 8.208 billion US dollars, accounting for 74.60% of the total imports.

The import trade pattern is relatively stable

From the point of view of trade methods, imports are still dominated by general trade. Imports accounted for 70.97% of the total amount and quantity of imports, but the unit price of imports increased by 16%.

The main provinces and cities importing machine tools are still Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shanghai. Its import value was 4.384 billion US dollars, accounting for 39.85% of total machine tool imports, slightly lower than 44% in 2012.

Continuous innovation in machine tool products

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s investment in the machine tool industry has increased. The Ministry of Commerce has formulated the “Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for the Import and Export of Electromechanical and High-tech Products”, which clarifies the development goals and promotes the export of mechanical and electrical products. The "Guidelines for the International Certification of Exported Electromechanical Products" effectively reduced the impact of foreign technical trade measures on the export of China's mechanical and electrical products; and successively introduced a series of policies and measures to promote the steady growth of foreign trade and optimize the structure of foreign trade, including accelerating the progress of export tax rebates and improving trade financing. Services, expansion of export credit insurance coverage, improvement of trade facilitation levels, reduction of import and export link fees and import discounts, etc., ensure the steady growth of machine tool imports and exports.

In 2012, demand for high-end products and professional machine tools was strong, and demand for ordinary machine tools declined. Under the dual promotion of national policies and market demand structure upgrading, the technical innovation of the whole industry has increased, and the product structure has been significantly optimized. This is one of the reasons why the export growth rate in 2013 is relatively fast. “The industry as a whole is still in the downside and has not stabilized. In the first 10 months of 2013, the main operating data of the machine tool industry, such as production and sales, new orders, etc., all accumulated negative growth, but the decline was slower than the same period of the previous year.” From China Chen Huiren, executive vice president of the Machine Tool Industry Association, said when talking about the status quo of the industry.

Demand structure continues to upgrade

When it comes to market changes, Chen Huiren cited a number of import and export data.

In the first three quarters of this year, the import volume of machine tool products decreased by 25%, while the average price of imported machine tools increased by 24%, reflecting the upgrading of domestic machine tool market demand.

Analysis of the origin of imported products can also lead to this conclusion. Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are the main sources of China's machine tool imports. The products in these regions account for more than 95% of China's total machine tool imports. Since 2013, the performance of products in different regions has begun to differentiate in the Chinese market. Among them, the European and American departments represented by Germany and Italy are the most glamorous, achieving a contrarian growth of 10%; Japan's decline is the most dramatic, reaching more than half; while South Korea and Taiwan are down by 20%.

Most of the European and American exports to China are high-end products, while Taiwan and South Korea are quite competitive in the low-end market. As the two rise and fall, we can see the changes in market demand.

If we go further and analyze it from domestic import areas, this view will be further supported. The top three domestic machine tool imports are Jiangsu, Shanghai and Guangdong. In the first three quarters of this year, Jiangsu's machine tool imports fell by 20%, Guangdong Province by 30%, and Shanghai by 4%.

The manufacturing industries in these three regions have their own characteristics. Among them, Shanghai's high-end manufacturing industry is the most developed, and the demand for machine tools is relatively strong. The high-end manufacturing needs naturally high-end machine tools.

These data show that the domestic machine tool market demand has undergone significant changes, the total demand has declined, and the demand structure has been upgraded.

More competitive market

The machine tool association's key contact with enterprise data and some enterprises' research shows that in the first three quarters, especially from January to August, the machine tool industry was in a low-level operation state; the market scale was shrinking overall, and the contradiction between industry structure, product structure and market demand was not effective. In the first three quarters, corporate profits continued to decline, and market competition became increasingly fierce. Under the situation of insufficient recovery of the world economy, the downward trend of export growth has not yet improved significantly. At the same time, the long-term growth of imports has also seen a sharp decline, further confirming the market. The overall scale of shrinking.

Chen Huiren said that in the context of a continuous decline in the market, the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading is accelerating, which is the result of the role of the reverse mechanism. In the face of market dilemmas, enterprises have shifted from the passive coping stage to the active compliance stage, and a few enterprises have begun to actively grasp the market.

The performance of companies can be roughly divided into four categories. First, it has risen against the trend, accounting for 20% to 30%. A common feature of these enterprises is that they have characteristics. Although they have their own tactics, they can all be different. Second, strengthen management and increase market development. This is the choice of most enterprises. The path of development has not changed, but in the predicament, we have chosen "hard work and internal strength", from the perspective of quality and cost. Third, structural adjustment, some enterprises have carried out deep structural adjustment, focusing on long-term development, fundamentally On the fourth stage, a small number of companies are still waiting to see, complain, and be overwhelmed by market changes.

The outstanding problems facing the industry at present are: serious shortage of orders and serious competition for homogenization. In 2012, machine tool manufacturers still had some orders for the previous year, but in the context of continued decline in new orders, companies are holding fewer and fewer orders.

The reduction in orders further exacerbated market competition. In some markets with low technical barriers, product homogeneity is very serious, such as three-axis vertical machining centers and two-axis CNC lathes. The advantage of local companies lies in price and service. Today, the market continues to decline and can only "shopping" prices.

In this regard, Chen Huiren said that vicious and irrational competition will harm the interests of the whole industry. The association will organize industry self-discipline activities and oppose price wars.

Some machine tool companies in China are not only limited to selling products, but also dare to extend to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and begin to “sell services”. This “selling service” approach not only makes the products closer to the end users, but also improves the ability to respond quickly to the market, and wins the reputation and reputation of the machine tool enterprises. It will also win more customers and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese companies. .

In recent years, China's machine tool industry is gradually forming a cluster and regionalization. In Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and other regions, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of machine tools has been formed, which is conducive to industry optimization and industrial division of labor, and promotes the development of the machine tool industry.

Machine tool product exports are expected to grow in 2014

At present, the development of China's machine tool industry is still continually trying to solve problems such as large but not strong mainframes, lagging development of numerical control systems and functional components, large gaps in key technologies of high-end CNC machine tools, low product quality stability, and poor overall economic returns. Core competitiveness, independent innovation, quantitative integration, brand building and quality services have been upgraded to a strategic level. Through 10 to 15 years, we will strive to achieve a series of medium and long-term goals, such as the transformation of machine tool manufacturing countries into machine tool giants, and the realization of domestic high-end CNC machine tools occupying a dominant position in the domestic market.

It is expected that in the first half of 2014, due to the steady improvement of the economic situation this year and the slight increase in orders, exports will maintain relatively high growth. With the gradual slow recovery of the world economy, the United States as the engine of the world economy has gradually reduced and withdrew from quantitative easing, leaving many uncertainties in the world economy. Considering that China's machine tool exports are expected to increase by 13% to 15% in 2014.

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